I built a tool that scores giveaways by your real odds of winning

I enter online giveaways, and I never knew which ones were actually worth the time. A $10,000 prize with 200,000 entrants is a worse bet than a $300 one with 400, but every giveaway site just lists them flat, sorted by nothing useful.

So I built VibeWin: it scores every live giveaway 0-100 on the real odds of winning, the prize value, and how much effort the entry takes, then ranks them. Around 1,290 are live right now, re-scored daily.

The hard part

Most giveaways don't publish how many people have entered, so the odds aren't handed to you. The bulk of the work was estimating the entrant pool from signals like reach, prize type, and how long it's been live, then turning that into a probability the score can use.

It's a solo project and still rough in places. I'd love feedback, especially on the estimation side: where it holds up and where it breaks.

🔗 https://vibewin.app